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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.